Research

Publications

Harnessing Neuroscientific Insights to Generate Alpha, with James Doran, Lionnel Pradier and Talis Putnins, forthcoming, Financial Analysts Journal

Outlier Blindness: A Neurobiological Foundation for Neglect of Financial Risk, with Michael Woodford,  The Journal of Financial Economics, vol 143 issue 3, 1316-1343, March 2022 (code|data)

Impact of Ambient Sound on Risk Perception in Humans: Neuroeconomic Investigations, with Bernard Balleine, James Doran, Gidi Nave and Lionnel Pradier, March 2021, Nature — Scientific Reports

Can People Learn About ‘Black Swans’? Experimental Evidence, Review of Financial Studies, vol 31 issue 12, December 2018 (code|data)

Variance After-Effects Bias Risk Perception in Humans, with Bernard Balleine, Tony Berrada and Joel Pearson, Current Biology, vol 26, June 2016 (code|data)

Media coverage: Sydney Morning Herald, Uniken, Business Think, The Australian Financial Review

Learning About Unstable, Publicly Unobservable Payoffs, with Peter Bossaerts, Review of Financial Studies, vol 28 issue 7, June 2015 (code|data)

The Neural Representation of Unexpected Uncertainty During Value-Based Decision Making, with Simon Dunne, Peter Bossaerts and John O’Doherty, Neuron, vol 79 issue 1, 191-201, 2013

Media coverage: ABC TV The Business, Uniken, Business Think, Sydney Morning Herald

Do Not Bet On The Unknown Versus Try To Find Out More: Estimation Uncertainty And ”Unexpected Uncertainty” Both Modulate Exploration, with Peter Bossaerts, Frontiers in Neuroscience 6:150, 2012

Risk, Unexpected Uncertainty, and Estimation Uncertainty: Bayesian Learning in Unstable Settings, with Peter Bossaerts, PLoS Computational Biology 7(1), 2011

Working Papers

Craving for Money? Empirical Evidence from the Laboratory and the Field, with James Doran, January 2022

The “Waterfall Illusion” in the Financial Markets: Evidence from the Laboratory and the Field, with Lionnel Pradier and Talis Putnins, October 2021

Selected for the NBER Summer Institute 2015 (Economic Fluctuations Behavioral/Macro). Best Paper Award 2017, Behavioural Finance and Capital Markets Conference, sponsored by Capital Markets CRC. WINNER Best Paper Award 2019, “Measurement of Traders in the Field”, sponsored by P&K Pühringer Foundation and cereneo

Work in Progress

The neural substrates of the “picking pennies bias”, with Giuseppe Ugazio and Nina Marie Sooter

Can people be nudged into “superforecasting”? Laboratory experiments, with Tony Berrada

Craving for repeated high-stakes gambles: a neuroeconomic study, with Bernard Balleine

“Attention Utility Theory”: Modeling decision-making under risk using neurochemistry, with Chew Soo Hong, Richard Ebstein, and Serenella Tolomeo

Using biofeedback to improve trader decisions: A proof-of-concept harnessing the latest neurofinance, psychophysiology, and machine learning sciences, with Reza Argha, James Doran, Andrew Lo, Nigel Lovell, Gelareh Mohammadi, and Lionel Page